Playoffs a long shot but in Sight for Pesky Dolphins

This time last year, the Miami Dolphins were well on their way to a historically miserable season. A winless team that couldn't score and couldn't defend (a typical recipe for disaster for any football squad). However, somehow, some way, the Dolphins started collecting wins and the respect of all teams in the NFL. They would finish the season being the league consensus losing-record team that no team wanted to play. This was no more evident than on the final game of the season. The New York Jets faced a must-win situation to have a chance at the post-season. They walked into Miami with playoff hopes and walked out eliminated from the playoffs. The second half 2011 Miami Dolphins were the pesky team no one wanted to play.

Flash forward to 2012, with the Miami Dolphins coming off their bye week, they still stand as the team no one wants to play. However, there are noticeable differences with this year's squad opposed to last year's 6-10 roster. The most notable differences are at the most important positions.

Rookie Quarterback Ryan Tannehill ahas rejuvenated a franchise and city that has wallowed in misery since the retirement of Hall-of-Fame Quarterback Dan Marino. Legitimate hope for a bright future of play-off appearances flickers in the distance. For the first time since the Dolphins gun-slinging legend rode off into the sunset, the Dolphins look to have a franchise Quarterback they can look to lead them into battle for the next 10-15 years.

Ryan Tannehill is ahead of schedule in his maturation as the Dolphins Franchise Quarterback

The fact is, Ryan Tannehill has already exceeded expectations for the 2012 season. Tannehill was a consensus "reach" by draft experts across the board. A converted WR, The former Texas A&M Aggie was a raw QB prospect that would need AT LEAST one season to get acclimated to the speed of the pro game. When his first NFL start resulted in a disastrous three-interception game, many questioned whether the Dolphins made the right decision in starting the rookie QB, especially over veteran Matt Moore, who helped the Dolphins gain credibility in the latter stages of the 2011 season.

However, with each passing start, the rook improved. He displayed incredible traits that only the all-time great QBs show. Most notably, the poise he has shown in his last five starts is off the charts. Nothing is too big for him. In Week 4, he threw for 306 yards against the blitz, the most by any passer since 2008. Tannehill seems to be light years ahead of schedule.

The 2012 Dolphins are playing hard for their rookie Head Coach Joe Philbin but they won't be mistaken for the first-class teams of the AFC. Despite the respectable 3-3 start, they will not be grouped among the Texans, Patriots and Ravens this season. Despite the continually-improving and impressive play from Tannehill, he won't yet be grouped among the elite Quarterbacks of the league. That said, as of today, the Dolphins still have a shot at the post-season, a situation not even the Dolphins players and staff could have imagined after the Week 1 debacle in Houston.

While the future for the Aqua & Orange certainly looks bright, the Dolphins still have a small glimmer of hope to make a run in 2012. In most years, the Dolphins simply would not have enough talent to compete in the vaunted AFC, but the conference is up for grabs with only ONE elite team. They will need a lot of help but if the Dolphins are to make the play-offs they need to continue to shine in the areas they succeed and improve on those areas where they struggle.

Where They Succeed:

Run the ball: Despite recent struggles, the Dolphins are still one of the best running teams in the league. Before injuring his knee in Week 3 against the Jets, Reggie Bush was a leading rusher in the NFL. The Dolphins offense will continue to focus on a heavy workload for Bush and Daniel Thomas. If he can improve in pass protection, look for rookie Lamar Miller to see more carries as he was extremely impressive with the carries he's received so far in the season.

Quarterback: As mentioned above, Ryan Tannehill has been better than advertised and is a revelation to the most important position. He continues to improve every single game.

Stop the run: The key to success for the Dolphins really lies in the trenches. They want to run the ball effectively and stop the run just as well. The Dolphins front 7 are an elite group led by Cameron Wake, Randy Starks, Paul Soliai and Karlos Dansby.

In order to continue success the Dolphins need to mirror the 49ers or Texans model, which is to control the game on the ground, play with the lead (or keep it close), don't ask too much of your Quarterback, win the turnover battle and capitalize on opponents' turnovers. They will not win, if they continue to:

Where They Need Iimprovement:

big plays: Although the Dolphins secondary has played well at times (better than many have thought, especially Safeties Reshad Jones & Chris Clemons), they still have a penchant for giving up the big play way too often. Defensive Coordinator Kevin Coyle needs to stress keeping the plays in front of them. While an opponent dinking and dunking all the way down the field to score is maybe the most demoralizing drive to a defending unit, to me it's a simple philosophy; the more plays an offence has to run, the more likely they are to make a mistake and turn the ball over.

turnovers: This one is simple, in the 3 Dolphins losses, they've accumulated 9 turnovers. In their 3 wins, they have 2 turnovers. The 2012 Dolphins do not have the luxury of losing the turnover battle, it's a recipe for a loss.

lack of weapons: Brian Hartline is having a career season and Davone Bess continues to be one of the best undrafted free-agent signings of the last 10 years, but after that, the Dolphins lack the explosion from their receivers to make enough big plays. Marlon Moore had a nice game last week against the Rams and Anthony Fasano will make key grabs when called upon, but the Dolphins definitely need another playmaker on the perimeter. If they are to look internally for this playmaker, they will continue to rely on Moore to see if he can continue to produce. It looks like 2011 late-season revelation Charles Clay may get a little more work in the second half of the season. Finally, Jabar Gaffney should finally be acclimated with the playbook to see action going into week 7.

If Jeff Ireland the Dolphins Front Office was to explore the option of a trade, they would probably look at pending free-agent Dwayne Bowe. In my opinion, Bowe wouldn't be worth trading the draft picks for what could be a 10 week rental. Packers receiver is a Joe Philbin known commodity and offers the big play potential the Dolphins could use, however, I think the Dolphins will sit on their ample draft picks and address the playmaking positions in the draft.

Yes, the 3-3 Dolphins have a shot at the post-season but I wouldn't rush to Vegas to drop money on it. A lot of things have gone right for the Dolphins through the first six games, including not having any key injuries. That said, the injury bug will bite every team and the Dolphins lack depth at most positions to survive any serious injuries. Also, as I laid out before, the Dolphins have to play with the lead, they aren't built to come back from 10 to 14 points.

My final prediction the Dolphins will fall short of making the play-offs and end the season with a highly respectable 8-8 record.